Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,856,884$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.8 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,761,896.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,761,896.5\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $199,865$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,820.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(187,820.8\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,041,070$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $700,580$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.96 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{763,112.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(763,112.3\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $73,697$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,627.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(77,627.4\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $30,566$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $106,810$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,721.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,721.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,272$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,640.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,640.6\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,218$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $147,583$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,032.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 66.4)}}\) (asimptote \(126,032.5\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,279$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(98.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,004.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,004.1\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,620$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $72,075$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,516.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.8)}}\) (asimptote \(74,516.7\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,204$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,410.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,410.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47,260$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $108,783$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,487.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(123,487.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,054$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(177 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,872.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,872.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,455$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $85,681$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,395.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(89,395.5\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,124$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,130.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,130.4\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,385$ on 2020-09-21
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $65,602$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,637.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 183.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,637.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $745$ on 2020-09-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{938.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 167.5)}}\) (asimptote \(938.6\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,730$ on 2020-09-21