Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,856,884$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.8 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,761,896.5}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 145.7)}}\) (asimptote \(8,761,896.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $199,865$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(4.21 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(79.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{187,820.8}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 78.9)}}\) (asimptote \(187,820.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,041,070$ on 2020-09-21

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $700,580$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.96 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(42.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{763,112.3}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 128.7)}}\) (asimptote \(763,112.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $73,697$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{77,627.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(77,627.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $30,566$ on 2020-09-21

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $106,810$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(5.48 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{118,721.6}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 137.6)}}\) (asimptote \(118,721.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,272$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(121 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,640.6}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 140.4)}}\) (asimptote \(2,640.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,218$ on 2020-09-21

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $147,583$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(88.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,032.5}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 66.4)}}\) (asimptote \(126,032.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,279$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.07 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(98.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,004.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 55.0)}}\) (asimptote \(9,004.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $10,620$ on 2020-09-21

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $72,075$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.04 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{74,516.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 129.8)}}\) (asimptote \(74,516.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,204$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(107 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,410.5}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 126.9)}}\) (asimptote \(2,410.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47,260$ on 2020-09-21

Dominican Republic⮸

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $108,783$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.28 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,487.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 134.9)}}\) (asimptote \(123,487.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,054$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(177 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(50.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,872.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 178.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,872.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $24,455$ on 2020-09-21

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $85,681$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(3.33 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,395.5}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 128.4)}}\) (asimptote \(89,395.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,124$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(176 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,130.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 110.2)}}\) (asimptote \(3,130.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,385$ on 2020-09-21

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $65,602$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(271 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,637.5}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 183.1)}}\) (asimptote \(99,637.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $745$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.86 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{938.6}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 167.5)}}\) (asimptote \(938.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $39,730$ on 2020-09-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Haiti recovered 62%
El Salvador recovered 56%
Mexico recovered 43%
Belize recovered 37%
Panama recovered 13%
Honduras recovered 5%

Haiti⮸

Population $11,402,528$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $8,624$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,043.7}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 79.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,043.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-09 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $221$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(29.7 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(51.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{221.8}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 86.4)}}\) (asimptote \(221.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,921$ on 2020-09-21

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $27,798$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.34 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(38.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{29,791.6}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 123.5)}}\) (asimptote \(29,791.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $812$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(35.2 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{865.7}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 121.2)}}\) (asimptote \(865.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,204$ on 2020-09-21

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,635$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(0.895 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,731.3}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 158.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,731.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $21$ on 2020-09-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.75 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 147.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $647$ on 2020-09-21